Hey, Big Spenders

When the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox were knocked out of the postseason in 2003, the vibe was that they were so close to a World Series bid that they just needed a couple more big pieces and they'd do it in the coming years. The difference? Boston cashed the check they wrote that October, while the Cubs have been headed downhill ever since.

Finally fed up with where the club was headed, Cubs ownership fired manager Dusty Baker and team president Andy MacPhail this winter. Now it appears the Cubs are trying to bypass what most teams would see as a necessary rebuilding period by going on a winter shopping spree not often seen this side of FAO Schwartz. The Cubs have spent this offseason committing $294,550,000.00 to salaries over the next 8 years, with almost half of that promised to the resurgent shortstop Alfonso Soriano. What do they have to show for it?

4 Starting Pitchers: The Cubs have locked up Kerry Wood, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis and Wade Miller for 2007. Wood and Miller came cheap, so I won't get into the fact that nobody can recall if or when they last had a successful season. Lilly is probably a good deal since, well, he didn't cost them as much as Gil Meche would, and Gil Meche sucks. Jason Marquis is looking at $7M per year over the next 3 years. Not bad for a guy who has only pitched one full season with under a 4.00 ERA, which coincidentally was the only season he posted a winning record.

5 Position Players: Once again, it's safe to assume nobody cares about the $1M Daryle Ward is getting, or who he's getting it from for that matter. 2B Mark DeRosa is a good pickup at a good price. (3 years/$13M total) And Henry Blanco will do well as Michael Barrett's backup. That leaves the two big guns: Aramis Ramirez (5 years/$75M), and Alfonso Soriano (8 years/$136M).

I respect the fact that the Cubs owe a duty to their fans to spend what they can to keep guys like Ramirez around and to put a face on their ball club, which is something the Cubs desperately need in light of the recent success of their crosstown neighbors. I also respect the fact that after years of their rotation being the laughing stock of baseball (what does their trainer get paid, I wonder?), they need to pull something together fast. It's also true that Soriano was the hottest commodity on the market right now and they had to make an offer he couldn't refuse if he was going to come to Chicago.

But that's not the point. I hate to break it to the Cubs and their fans, but history has shown that try as you might, you can't buy a championship on this scale. Now is when people say "well what about the Yankees?" The Yankees spend like crazy, that's true. But in the years where they had consistent success, it wasn't their salaries or big names that got them there. It was the consistency of their roster from season to season. Anyone involved in any team sport anywhere can tell you that the surest way to find success is to 1) have a program that works and 2) get as many people to stay in that program together for as long as possible.

Sure, the Cubs have added at least 5 big names to their roster for 2007. But will that guarantee them success in 2007? No way. This may be a very expensive way to start a 3 to 4 year rebuilding period, but it is not a solution in and of itself.